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In the Short Term, the PVC Trend is Still Loose Expectations

2019-10-16 16:24:29  admin  311

In the short term, the PVC trend is still loose expectations
 
Returning from National Day holiday,the trading atmosphere of PVC market is flat, the main regional market offer narrow range adjustment, including north China market vinyl price down, 5 material slightly up;And south China market offer slightly loose.The price trend of PVC production enterprises is also slightly different, the quotation of PVC enterprises in Inner Mongolia are falling, such as Inner Mongolia junzheng, China salt jilantai and Inner Mongolia yili, the mainstream of the current 5 materials in 6400-6500 yuan/ton or so;Shandong area PVC enterprise quotation has been increased, the range of about 50 yuan/ton, 5 material mainstream in 6,700-6,800 yuan/ton acceptance.The quotation of PVC enterprises in other areas has not changed significantly.After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenishment of stock is not much, the basic maintenance of rigid needs, the transaction is relatively flat.
 
From the perspective of futures, up to October 10, dalian PVC futures 2001 contract continued weak, opening 6410, the highest 6435, the lowest 6375, closed at 6390, down 45, down 0.70%.Trading volume was 148,904 lots, with open positions rising 20320 to 320,276.Technically, the KDJ indicator continues to diverge downward and the MACD indicator green column continues to elongate, indicating an increase in the strength of the empty side.In terms of the trend, both the daily average and the waterfall line form a short line, and the brin channel is in a weak area, so the trend is still bearish.PVC futures is expected to maintain a short - term low shock.The top pay attention to 6500 line of pressure, the bottom pay attention to 6300 line of support, operation, it is recommended that empty single can be held carefully. 
 
Favorable factors: some PVC production enterprises began to overhaul, such as ningxia yinglite and taishan salinization, and the supply side was somewhat weakened.The price of raw calcium carbide remains high, and some parts of the shipment is tight, PVC enterprises continue to uneven arrival, the cost of a certain support;Ethylene enterprise supply is tight, and sales are good, some enterprises temporarily closed.Hanwha ningbo; 
Negative factors: some PVC enterprises quoted lower, more negative sentiment;The quantity of orders received by downstream manufacturers is not good, basically still maintain the rigid demand, the transaction is relatively flat;PVC futures 2001 contract trend remains bearish.Further low innovation is possible.
 

On the whole, at present, there are both good and bad factors, and there is a lack of guidance of major influencing factors. However, PVC futures continue to be weak, and the trend is still short, or there may be further loose.Therefore, believe that in the short term PVC market still loose expectations. 


Later still need to pay attention to the macro, futures trends, national policies and the impact of downstream receiving.
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