Last week, the domestic soda ash market continued to decline, the price of the low – price zone to narrow, high – price accelerated callback.At present, there are few maintenance enterprises, and early maintenance manufacturers continue to drive, soda ash manufacturers start load increased to more than 80%, alkali enterprises inventory increase, demand depressed shipment pressure, the current downstream users and traders more cautious wait and see the market.
Light soda ash, alkali enterprise inventory growth continuously, clinch a deal the center of gravity down continuously, cheap supply of goods were heard in the market, operators mentality pressure, terminal market enthusiasm is not high, cautious wait-and-see market, weak hard to change, the current ammonia alkali factory house prices are still significantly higher than the factory house, part of the ammonia alkali factory house in July new price 100 yuan/ton, the current price to close to the cost line.Heavy alkali, shahe area six coal-burning glass production lines are required to stop the furnace transformation, south of the glass inventory is still high, coupled with the impact of frequent rain, further reduction in demand, and by a large float glass group bidding price significantly reduced, heavy alkali pressure is deepening.
Maintenance of fewer enterprises, soda ash manufacturers under high inventory, shipment pressure does not reduce.The market is out of balance between supply and demand, which leads to the increase of the inventory of alkali enterprises. According to statistics, the overall inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 750,000 to 800,000 tons at present, and the domestic soda ash production was 10.972,000 tons in january-may, an increase of 3.3% year on year.
Downstream demand is flat, users hold wait-and-see mood.Some small downstream factories of light alkali have stopped production, and the demand for light alkali has declined. The market support for light alkali is weak. On the other hand, the trade war between China and the United States has a great impact on the export of paohua alkali and daily glass, and the demand for light alkali has decreased.The price of float glass in the downstream of heavy alkali has been rising recently, which is mainly affected by the closure of 6 float lines required in shahe area. In addition, the poor profit of glass manufacturers has triggered the resistance to the high price of heavy alkali, which has formed a great negative effect on the alkali market.
Market outlook forecast
On the whole, the main influences of alkali city are as follows:
1, the recent soda ash manufacturers start load is in high, but soda ash manufacturers overall inventory jun high, alkali enterprises receive orders less, some enterprises reduce prices to exchange volume, inventory digestion still need a period of time.
2. With the continuous decline of soda ash price, the profit space of alkali enterprises will reach about 200-300 yuan, and the profit space will shrink sharply.
3. The weak downstream demand and the terminal demand and use under the pressure of unfavorable conditions have become the most important factors restricting the alkali market at present.
The demand continues to be depressed, the industry is passive and wait-and-see, the market supply and demand contradiction is prominent, the industry confidence is insufficient, under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the downstream users have low enthusiasm to buy goods, it is expected that the alkali market in the short term has signs of improvement, still continue to decline.In addition, in view of the current situation, during the continuous reduction of soda ash price, alkali enterprises are more likely to maintain stable production, while domestic traders have less surplus goods and alkali enterprises have more inventory. If the transportation is blocked in the later period or the upstream stable production continues to be pressed, the downstream rigid demand enterprises may face the risk of production reduction, and the weak demand in the alkali market will only increase.